The future of product development is less agile

My co-founder Dr. Chris Waters and I made a prediction recently. Did you happen to see it? I wrote about our hypothesis, which we are (still mostly seriously) calling the Waters theory, in a post on the Aha! blog. The gist is that the percentage of code written by AI will quintuple year over year. And with this drastically reduced barrier to software development, product teams will be able to build almost anything extremely quickly. Now, I have another prediction.

The most successful products will be built by teams that are less agile and — dare I say it — maybe even "waterfall-ish."

Customers already have high expectations. Their expectations of AI-aided products will be even higher. What is built must be perfect, because users are familiar with the power and personalization that AI offers. This means we need to work even harder to deliver the Minimum Lovable Product (MLP), every time. The margin for error is becoming razor thin.

But getting there by being ... less agile? Even worse, waterfall? I know, I know. After decades of being told to "go agile," the idea of slowing down probably sounds like blasphemy to followers of the various methodologies that promise salvation for software teams. Heretical or not, I believe it is the only logical way forward.

It is time to think about what is most sacred here: the method for how we work, or the value of what we build?

I have never been one to follow trends or indiscriminately buy into some fixed methodology. To me, what matters most is that a team can move forward in unison toward a shared goal of value creation. And I know from experience that moving fast with confidence is impossible if you do not know where you are headed.

So when I refer to being "less agile," I do not suggest that you will be slow to deliver. There can be no slowing down. Instead, I am referencing a move toward more upfront planning with approaches that are purposeful — not reactive.

Forward-thinking product development teams will need to find the balance between thoughtful strategy and agile delivery. Here is what I see as key to finding equilibrium:

Understand the market and customers deeply

Market analysis and customer research have always been core to setting differentiated product strategy. But lots of product folks struggle with it. There are a few reasons: lack of experience or formal training, scarce resources, too much (or too little) reliance on data, an inward tunnel vision that prevents you from seeing beyond what is right in front of you. Whatever the reason, settling into a surface-level understanding of the market and your customers will no longer be passable.

Now is the time to double down in these areas. Because when everyone is operating from a place of deep understanding, you will see better decisions across the board — from planning high-level initiatives to making on-the-fly calls about what to prioritize next. Product managers need to lead the way.

Draw insights from product discovery

It should not be surprising that those who take the time to learn about customers (and then confirm that what those customers say they want is actually what they need) are the ones who develop winning products. Again though, product discovery is an area where teams are not progressing the discipline as quickly as product development is evolving.

Sustainable systems for product discovery are now imperative. I see this consistently when I meet with product teams, often at some of the world's largest and well-known companies. This is part of why we recently launched Aha! Discovery — to create a through line from strategy to customer interview to insight to roadmap. Product managers need to become experts at drawing these unique insights.

Refine experiences by modeling them

For a long time, the push was to get functionality out there for customers to start using ASAP. You could always refine after. And this is still true in a way. It is just that our definition of ASAP is shifting — there will be less time and more pressure to build the best possible MLP. Customers will not tolerate anything less.

Being able to refine before you launch gives you the chance to deliver an MLP every time. So although we are not going to return to a true waterfall approach in terms of ditching iterative releases, product teams will move refinement earlier in the cycle. Many organizations are already doing this, using AI to flesh out desired customer experiences. Product managers need to be adept at AI-supported wireframing, prototyping, and even light app development.

Coordinate flawlessly across teams

Once you identify and make a product decision, you have to move fast to build and launch. This phase of product development will become more and more time-compressed. And though AI will be helpful in expediting, you still need real humans to guide and orchestrate the process.

Handoffs must be seamless. Documentation and training must be ready and easily accessed. Go-to-market activities must be prepped in parallel for expeditious launches. Once you say go, the engine must rev and accelerate without lag. Product managers need to prime the pump.

Going forward, be prepared to go deep on investigation, analysis, and experimentation before you speed up for the build.

This depth of thoughtful planning will be additive for many product teams — you will still need to work quickly and be ultra-responsive to market shifts and your customers' needs. And there will not be any more time to do it and more pressure to get it right. To be sure that you are building that right thing, you need to have clarity of purpose and a view of the value you will deliver.

So let's take more time to vet our direction and be super sure of our product decisions. That way, we can move fast with confidence when it counts.

Maybe being less agile will be better for all of us.

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